冠状病毒的经济成本：中国制造业放缓可能导致全球价值链出口减少500亿美元

Coronavirus could shrink global FDI by 5% to 15%

冠状病毒可能使全球外国直接投资缩水5%至15%

The coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak could cause global foreign direct investment (FDI) to shrink by 5%-15%, according to an UNCTAD report published on 8 March.

根据联合国贸易和发展会议3月8日发表的一份报告，冠状病毒（COVID-19）的爆发可能导致全球外国直接投资（FDI）减少5%-15%。

The UN trade body had projected earlier a stable level of global FDI inflows in 2020-2021 with a potential increase of 5%.

联合国贸易机构早些时候曾预计，2020-2021年全球外国直接投资流入量将保持稳定水平，可能增长5%。

Now it warns that flows may hit their lowest levels since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, should the epidemic continue throughout the year.

现在它警告说，如果疫情持续一年，流动可能达到2008-2009年金融危机以来的最低水平。

COVID-19’s negative impact on investments will be felt strongest in the automotive, airlines and energy industries, the report says.

报告称，在汽车、航空和能源行业，COVID-19对投资的负面影响将最为强烈。

Coronavirus: Can policymakers avert a trillion-dollar crisis?

冠状病毒：政策制定者能避免万亿美元的危机吗？

The downside scenario of the spread of the coronavirus sees a $2 trillion shortfall in global income. But even if the worst is avoided, the hit to global income, compared with what forecasters had been projecting for 2020, will be capped at around the trillion-dollar mark.

冠状病毒传播的负面前景是全球收入出现2万亿美元的缺口。但即使避免了最坏的情况，与预测者对2020年的预测相比，对全球收入的冲击将被限制在万亿美元左右。

Could it be worse though? UNCTAD published an analysis on 9 March that suggests why this may be the case.

会更糟吗？贸发会议3月9日发表了一份分析报告，说明了为什么会出现这种情况。

“No one saw this coming – but the bigger story is a decade of debt, delusion and policy drift," says Richard Kozul-Wright, UNCTAD's globalization and development director.

联合国贸发会议全球化与发展主任理查德·科祖尔·赖特（Richard Kozul Wright）说：“没有人看到这一趋势的到来，但更重要的是十年的债务、错觉和政策偏移。”。

Short-term effects of the coronavirus outbreak: what the shipping data shows.

冠状病毒爆发的短期影响：航运数据显示。

Though it is too early to gauge the full economic and trade effects of the coronavirus outbreak, shipping data reveals a change in the operational behaviour of container vessels and in the number of oil products on the water, says Abudi Zein in an UNCTAD newsletter.

阿布迪·泽因在联合国贸易和发展会议的一份通讯中说，虽然现在还不能全面评估冠状病毒爆发对经济和贸易的影响，但航运数据显示，集装箱船的经营行为和水上石油产品的数量都发生了变化。

There is context to these changes and their potential impact, especially in China’s manufacturing and trade of oil products.

这些变化及其潜在影响是有背景的，特别是在中国的石油产品制造和贸易方面。

Coronavirus outbreak has cost global value chains $50 billion in exports

冠状病毒爆发给全球价值链造成500亿美元出口损失

The slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a $US50 billion decrease in exports across global value chains, according to UNCTAD analysis released on 4 March.

根据3月4日联合国贸发会议（UNCTAD）发布的分析，由于冠状病毒（COVID-19）的爆发，中国制造业的放缓正在扰乱世界贸易，可能导致全球价值链出口减少500亿美元。

“In addition to grave threats to human life, the coronavirus outbreak carries serious risks for the global economy,” UNCTAD Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi said.  

联合国贸发会议秘书长木克希萨·基图伊说：“除了对人类生命的严重威胁外，冠状病毒的爆发也给全球经济带来了严重的风险。”。

“Any slowdown in manufacturing in one part of the world will have a ripple effect in economic activity across the globe because of regional and global value chains.”

“由于区域和全球价值链，世界某一地区制造业的任何放缓都将对全球经济活动产生连锁反应。”

来源：联合国贸发会议新闻公司